A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
